One of the quickest and oldest 40 yard dash predictor for 400 meter talent (or any sprinting distance) is running a 40 yard dash. Then,
- For Male athletes = (Time for 40 yards × 10) + 2 seconds
- For Female athletes = (Time for 40 yards × 10) + 4 seconds
Thus, for a man, a 4.6 40 yard dash is (4.6 seconds x 10) + 2 = 48.0
Now, it’s not saying that a 4.6 40 yard guy WILL run 48 flat for 400m, though funnily enough, my 40 yard dash was 4.6 and I ran 48.36.
It’s saying a 4.6 40 yard dash has the POTENTIAL of running 48 seconds for 400 meters based on raw speed.
As Jared Deacon nicely pointed out, speed is the key… your 400m is based on your 200 time, your 200m is based on your 100 time, your 100m is based on your 60 time, your 60m is based on your 30 time. Or 40 yard or 36.6 meters.
The following chart are National norms using hand times for 16 to 19 year olds. Where do you rank? What is your best 40 yard dash time and 400 meter time? How accurate is this formula?
That is just another conjectural, theoretical model that is CRAP! In the first instance, 40 yard dash times are universally INNACURATE unless they are extrapolated from a fully automatically timed race (FAT). If you are referring to NFL “times” or other informal clockings, that is pure hyperbole and FICTION.
In the second instance, the 400 meter race has a large component of fitness (stamina). This is something that can be acquired through training. That is how Jeremy Wariner can run faster 400 meter times than Tyson Gay–43.45 seconds as compared to 44.89 seconds, (although not Gay’s specialty). Butch Reynolds and Lee Evans were not regarded as “speed burners”, but they were among the greatest 400 meter specialists of all time–through stamina. Let me give you another illustration of how fitness or a lack of fitness can determine one’s 400 meter potential. Usain Bolt has a PR and world record of 19.19 seconds for the 200 meter dash. By any reasonable calculation, he should be able to run 2 (20.7) 200 meter segments, if he were fit. This would result in a phenomenal time of 41.4 seconds for the 400 meter race. You, I, and the readers know that is not going to happen because Bolt hates the 400 meter dash and the effort required to excel at it–notwithstanding the advantage of supernatural speed.