I don’t think so.
I analyzed Usain Bolt’s 10 meter splits from his 9.69 Beijing Olympic victory in a previous article.
If you extrapolate Usain Bolt’s last 10 meter segment, without the chest thumping, it would be fair to say he would have ran 0.84 or 0.85 seconds, making his 100m World Record 9.63 or 9.64.
Even a 0.83 last 10 meter split would give him 9.62
I don’t know where the other 0.10 seconds could be sliced.
Could Bolt run a 0.81 top end speed? That could shave 0.05 seconds (5 x 0.01 per 10 meter split).
Usain Bolt is scheduled to race in Zurich, and who knows, he may prove me wrong!
Here is the article from Yahoo News:
Bolt could have run 9.52 in Olympics, coach says
ZURICH (Reuters) – Triple Olympic gold medalist and world record holder Usain Bolt could have run the 100 meters in 9.52 seconds if he had not slowed to celebrate, his coach said on Wednesday.
Glen Mills said Bolt, who electrified Beijing with his sprint victories, was at the start of his 100 career and would peak only in about two years’ time.
“If he had continued, the slowest he would have run would have been 9.52,” Mills told reporters ahead of Friday’s Weltklasse athletics meeting in Zurich, where Bolt is due to run the 100.
“This is his first year of running the 100 meters,” Mills said. “In two more years he should be peaking at this distance and by then I am certain he will be down to there.”
Bolt set a world record of 9.69 seconds in the 100, and was so far ahead of the field that he slowed before the end to celebrate.
Bolt then broke Michael Johnson’s 12-year-old mark in the 200 and added a third gold by contributing to a world record for Jamaica in the 4×100 relay.
On Friday, Bolt will face the two men who won medals behind him in the Beijing 100, Richard Thompson of Trinidad & Tobago and American Walter Dix.
Other Beijing winners on show in Zurich include women’s pole vault champion Yelena Isinbayeva and Kenenisa Bekele of Ethiopia, who won the men’s 5,000 and 10,000 meters.
“I’ve had some sleep since I’ve been here so I’m not tired. I’m trying to get my blood pumping again,” Bolt said.
He declined to speculate on what time he might run on Friday.
“I don’t think you can really set another goal after doing that at the Olympics,” said Bolt, who turned 22 the day after his 200 Beijing win. “I’m just trying to get to the end of the season, injury free, and go home and enjoy myself.”
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If he was to run the 9.52, it is not the top end that is the issue, but getting to the top end. He would have to shave some time off the first 10, that would add up dramatically to the top end.
The next spot would be the 10 to 20 meter segment.
I think Usain could have run 9.56 in the Olympic Final and could run 19.12 for the 200m if the conditions are right and will do so before the end of 2010.
Considering his slow reaction time, and relatively slow pick-up to 20m compared to previous 100m WR holders, and the fact that he started to celebrate at 7.9 seconds (about 18 metres from the line), he could easily shave off 0.1.
And this was after running three sub 10 seconds in the previous day and a half – if he was ‘fresh’, 9.59 would the slowest he would run – with a 1.9 or 2.0 wind behind him – and now he’s a year stronger – he could run a ‘fresh’ 9.52 or 9.53.
If he runs a 200m ‘fresh’, having improved his 100m time by over 0.1, he’ll could knock a minimum of 0.15 from his 200m time, therefore running 19.15 as the slowest estimate.
Next week in Berlin, if conditions are perfect, he’ll run 9.58 – I’m sure of it, and he’ll run it as follows:
1.84 0-10m
1.01 10-20m
0.91 20-30m
0.86 30-40m
0.84 40-50m
0.82 50-60m (60m time will be 6.28)
0.82 60-70m
0.82 70-80m
0.82 80-90m
0.84 90-100m
9.58 seconds
Just watch!!!
@Ian – great analysis! Bolt will run fast, no doubt, but he isn’t in the same shape as Beijing 2008.
His 19.59 in pouring rain makes me wonder how fast he can run the 200 with some quality workouts and ideal conditions.
IAN BATSON-WRIGHT
“Next week in Berlin, if conditions are perfect, he’ll run 9.58 – I’m sure of it”
Who the hell are you!!! Amazing prediction… havent seen the 10 m split yet but what made you so sure he could do it. I never imagined that he could really have gotten his start fixed up so well and so quickly because all season at the various meets his start was horrible.
I’m so happy i lived in this era to witness this, Bolt to the flippin world!
BTW he can go faster!
Yes, great prediction from IAN BATSON-WRIGHT! This time, he had Tyson Gay to push him through the line.
Hi All
Just to let you know that I actually dreamt he would run 9.58 the night before I posted my prediction on this site!
And my dream came true!!!
Below are the figures I managed to find on the Berlin splits (http://www.sportsscientists.com/2009/08/usain-bolt-958s.html) against my prediction:
Usain Bolt:
Beijing Berlin My guess
React 0.165 0.146
0-10m 1.85 1.89 1.84 (reaction was what I expected, but pick up was 0.05 slower than I predicted, not great, especially as he ran 1.85 in Beijing)
10-20m 1.02 0.99 1.01 (0.02 faster, starting to clear the deficit from 0-10m – first man to break 1.00 for 10-20m!)
20-30m 0.91 0.90 0.91 (0.01 faster)
30-40m 0.87 0.86 0.86 (spot on)
40-50m 0.85 0.83 0.84 (0.01 faster)
50-60m 0.82 0.82 0.82 (spot on – overall 0.03 slower than expected at this point
60-70m 0.82 0.81 0.82 (0.01 faster – fastest 10m split in 100m history!)
70-80m 0.82 0.82 0.82 (spot-on)
80-90m 0.83 0.83 0.82 (0.01 slower)
90-100m 0.90 0.83 0.84 (0.01 faster)
Time 9.69 9.58 9.58
If you add the fastest splits from both races, you get 9.54.
If he works more on his start and pick-up over the first 30m, and Usain runs through the line, he’ll could be the first man under 9.50.