• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Click here to download the  free ebook of Alberto Juantorena’s  detailed training workouts leading up to the 1976 Montreal Olympics

SpeedEndurance.com

Success in Track & Field ... and Life

  • Home
    • About
    • Contact
  • Track & Field
    • 400 meters
    • 800m & Mile
    • 1/2 & Full Marathons
    • Long & Triple Jump
    • Hurdles
  • Training
    • Weight Training
    • Abs & Core
    • Injury Prevention
    • Shoes & Spikes
    • Masters
  • Coaching
    • Freelap Friday Five
    • Interviews
    • Sports Nutrition
    • Sport Psychology
  • Archives
  • Shop
    • My account
    • Checkout
    • Basket

Coach Glen Mills was Right – Usain Bolt can run 9.52

You are here: Home / Beijing 2008 / Coach Glen Mills was Right – Usain Bolt can run 9.52
1
SHARES
FacebookTwitter

August 14, 2009 by Jimson Lee 2 Comments

It appears Coach Mills was right, based on extreme-value theory.

Last year when Usain Bolt’s coach Glen Mills claimed Bolt could run 9.52, I bashed him say it was impossible.

I analyzed Usain Bolt’s 10 meter splits from his 9.69 Beijing Olympic victory and extrapolated his last 10 meter segment, without the chest thumping.

A final 10 meter split of 0.84 or 0.85 seconds would extrapolate his 100m World Record to 9.63 or 9.64.  Even a 0.83 last 10 meter split would give him 9.62.  I don’t know where the other 0.10 seconds to generate a 9.52 could be sliced.

Extreme-value theory

Extreme-value theory is similar to statistics for the financial risk management sector and insurance world to estimate the risk of extreme events, such as stock market crashes and earthquakes.  The events are rare, but they do happen.  Basically, if you apply it to sports, you are looking for “freaks of nature”

John H.J. Einmahl of Tilburg University  and Sander G.W.R. Smeets, of AZL, Heerlen present the scientific journal Ultimate 100m world records through extreme-value theory.  It’s a 15 page PDF file if you are interested in the long read.

From their Abstract:

We use extreme-value theory to estimate the ultimate world records for the 100m running, for both men and women. For this aim we collected the fastest personal best times set between January 1991 and June 2008. Estimators of the extreme-value index are based on a certain number of upper order statistics.

 

To optimize this number of order statistics we minimize the asymptotic mean squared error of the moment estimator. Using the thus obtained estimate for the extreme-value index, the right endpoint of the speed distribution is estimated.

 

The corresponding time can be interpreted as the estimated ultimate world record: the best possible time that could be run in the near future. We find 9.51 seconds for the 100m men and 10.33 seconds for the women.

One thing to take notice is their sample pool.

READ  Have We Only Produced 100 faster sprinters in the last 44 years?

The authors analyzed the records of 762 male and 479 female athletes. Each athlete were listed only once, and the performances were recorded between January 1991 and June 2008.   Thus, it does not include FloJo’s WR of 10.49 (1988) nor Usain Bolt’s 9.69 WR in Beijing (August 2008).

The sample pool of men’s times ranges between 9.72 and 10.30 seconds, and the women’s from 10.65 to 11.38.

I can mentally accept a Usain Bolt performance in the 9.50’s but a women’s WR of 10.33 will make me gasp in horror.

  • Bio
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube
  • Latest Posts
Jimson Lee

Jimson Lee

Coach & Founder at SpeedEndurance.com
I am a Masters Athlete and Coach currently based in London UK. My other projects include the Bud Winter Foundation, writer for the IAAF New Studies in Athletics Journal (NSA) and a member of the Track & Field Writers of America.
Jimson Lee

@speedendurance

Jimson Lee
Jimson Lee
Jimson Lee

Jimson Lee

Jimson Lee

Latest posts by Jimson Lee (see all)

  • Jana Pittman – 400mH World Champion, Bobsleigh, and now Doctor - December 8, 2020
  • Autogenic/Parasympathetic Breathing Techniques for Recovery & Regeneration – Episode 3 - May 22, 2020
  • PART 2: Viewing the Bio-Motor Abilities of 400m Hurdlers Relative to 800m Runners - May 13, 2020
Jimson Lee

Category iconBeijing 2008,  Track & Field Tag iconOlympics,  speed,  Usain Bolt

About Jimson Lee

I am a Masters Athlete and Coach currently based in London UK. My other projects include the Bud Winter Foundation, writer for the IAAF New Studies in Athletics Journal (NSA) and a member of the Track & Field Writers of America.

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Christian says

    August 17, 2009 at 10:55 am

    Thank you for sharing the info Lee. I’m not sure why but your last sentence about gasping in horror at a10.33 women’s WR left me in stitches:)

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Primary Sidebar

Follow Us

  • E-mail
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

Shop Our Store

  • Bud Winter (9)
  • Championship Productions (6)
  • Clyde Hart (2)
  • Derek Hansen (1)
  • Electrical Muscle Stimulation (2)
  • Jim Hiserman (5)
  • Jimson Lee (3)
  • Uncategorised (0)

Articles by Category

Products

  • SpeedEndurance Products Jim Hiserman - Developing Distance Runners Volume 2: A Systematic Approach to Developing Individual Success within a Dynamic Team Culture $34.95 $29.95
  • Feed-the-Cats-Clinic-3-Pack-701 'Feed the Cats' Clinic 3-Pack $64.99
  • Tony Holler's Feed the Cats": A Complete Sprint Training Program Tony Holler's "Feed the Cats" Complete Sprint Training Program $49.99
  • Bud Winter and Speed City presents Arthur Lydiard 509x716 Bud Winter & Arthur Lydiard MP3 [Download only] $9.99
  • Globus SprintCoach LE Electrical Muscle Stimulation Globus Electrical Muscle Stimulation SprintCoach SPORT $849.00
  • Globus SprintCoach LE Electrical Muscle Stimulation Globus Electrical Muscle Stimulation SprintCoach SPORT Limited Edition (LE) $949.00

RECENT POSTS

  • Jana Pittman – 400mH World Champion, Bobsleigh, and now Doctor
  • Autogenic/Parasympathetic Breathing Techniques for Recovery & Regeneration – Episode 3
  • PART 2: Viewing the Bio-Motor Abilities of 400m Hurdlers Relative to 800m Runners
  • Remembering Mike Agostini (1935 – 2016)
  • Remembering CharlieFrancis Forum (10 Years later)
  • Microstretching vs PNF vs ELDOA: Live Zoom Chat (Episode 2)
  • Viewing the Bio-Motor Abilities of 400m Hurdlers Relative to 800m Runners (Part 1)
  • A Systematic Approach To Developing Individual Success Within A Dynamic Team Culture
  • How to do Repeat 100m Strides with No Marks or Measurements
  • Testing for Speed, Power, Strength, & Endurance [VIDEO]

Copyright © 2021. SpeedEndurance.com is owned and operated by Aryta Ltd. Privacy Policy