Usain Bolt will run a 300m at the Ostrava Golden Spike on May 27, 2010. I am tempted to go there since Ostrava is a cheap 2 hour flight from Rome.
There’s no doubt in my mind he can run under 31 seconds if he tries. Whether he breaks Michael Johnson’s World Record of 30.85, which was set in “altitude”, is another story. Bolt already has 4 world records (100m, 150m, 200m, and 4x100m relay).
Why not add a 5th World Record (or World Best if you really want to get technical?)
Why not try to be the Tommie Smith of the 1960’s and go for 11 world records concurrently? Jamaica can easily fill a 4x200m relay pool to break the record.
In his 45.86 400m last February, he split 300 meters at 32.6. This time, he’ll have to go all out.
The big question is lane draw. The inside 4 or 5 lanes starts on the tip of the curve. Lane 6 through 9 starts in a straight line on the back stretch. When Michael Johnson set the WR, he requested lane 6 to take advantage of this fact.
How to Convert a 300m time from 200m
The answer is, you can’t, as everyone’s top speed and speed endurance is different.
From my old CIAU calculator (now called the CIS), we used 21.4 (21.64 FAT) for 200 meters and added 13.1 seconds to get a 300m conversion. This conversion only works when you are aiming for a 300m standard of 34.74.
The above conversion is a ratio of 1.633, which makes:
19.19 x 1.633 = 31.33 seconds.
Somehow, that doesn’t seem right.
Michael Johnson ran 19.32 and 30.85 which is approx a factor of 1.60
My personal bests are 21.98 and 35.15, which is also factor of 1.60
Usain Bolt will run what he runs. Even if it means a 30.70 at sea level (using x1.60) ? Now that would be nice!
But is $30,000 USD enough incentive to go for a WR?
SIDENOTE: If you do go to Ostrava (or anywhere in the Czech Republic), make sure you try the Czech dessert kolace which is a squared-shaped dough bread filled with cheese, poppy seeds, fruit such as prunes and apricots, custard pudding and honey for sweetness.
Harri Heimonen says
I think he can do a sub-30 in 300m. Well, I have to be careful of course… but if he changes his training a little bit(?)…perhaps.
My 200pb was 22.25 and my 300pb was 34.59, which is a 1.55 ratio, this would give Usain 29.75 if he could match the same ratio:-) Since the 200 is outdoors whereas the 300 was indoors it likely means it would have been an even smaller ratio if I compared indoor only PB’s…
No, he won’t break 31.00 in May – reason – his 200m WR is ‘only’ 0.13s faster than MJ, and his best 400m is a full 2.10s slower than MJ, and his fastest 400m relay split is 0.67s slower.(And split times are not an indication of race times – John Regis, UK 200m record holder (19.87) ran 43.9 for a relay split and only ran 45.4 at best in a race). So, to break the record, he will need to go off harder than MJ did, but as he is not as strong as MJ over the 400m, I doubt he’ll have the endurance to hold the advantage over the last part of the race. In addition, MJs record was sent at altitude. If I had to put money on it, I’d guess 31.18s at best!
Mind you I’m writing this after the race, BUT – I think it’s unwise to predict long sprint times based on short sprint ones. Because while they can be a general predictor of what a particular athlete will run, there is a lot that “happens” once you go past 200 meters as far as fatigue, lactate threshold, anaerobic capacity, mental toughness, etc.
I ran track in HS & College, and now I run masters events. I can’t tell you how many times a super fast 100M guy got destroyed by a slower guy with more endurance in the 200m.
Same thing happens in the 400m too.
In other cases you have people who manage to get faster over say the 100-200m range, but not over the 400m. In other cases the opposite happens.
Plus you never know how training for certain events will impact a particular athlete.
In College it was decided I’d run the 200m/400m but focus on the 400 (in HS I ran 100/200/400), now I wound up in amazing shape and could run 400s in practice all day. But my speed was impacted adversely and my times stagnated and begun to get worse, so my coach had me train (for the most part) like a 100/200 guy and I only did intervals (minus a couple of reps) with the 400 crowd and I got better at all sprint events.
Who knows what training like a 200/400 guy (in order to get the records in the 300 and the 400) would do to Bolt’s speed in the 100/200.
It’s a tough balance.
Harri Heimonen says
Mr Markham is right. At HS doing 100/200/400 is, probably, done to get the points for the team because one is the best in those events in one’s team, and in want of better performers, and on college level too. In the modern world it would probably be called ‘multi-tasking in the cinder track office’. But to be totally succesful in all 100/200/400. I don’t know if it can be done? 2miles/5K/10K can be done. 400/800 can be done, but can you perform on 600? Enroute to perform well at 5K/10K you can at some point do well at 2miles, but when you are peak-performing at 5K/10K then I don’t think that you can peak-perform at 2miles which you were able to do at the beginning of the season, and this applies to sprinting too. I would guess(?.)
30.97 was faster than I thought he would run (I thought he’d run 31.18).
BUT, it still makes me wonder – if he took another hit this year at his 100m (and particularly the 200m record this year and then moved to 200m and 400m training in the fall, with one solid fall/winter’s training, I think he’ll break 43.00.
In my opinion, he has the speed, stamina and ability to break 9.50/19.00 – quicker reaction times/faster first 25m/run through the line and not think about looking at the clock!
Next year, he should focus on the 200/400m in London 2012. Then he’d be the first man in history to hold the 100, 200 and 400m (plus 4 * 100m relay) records, AND hold Olympic gold medals (and records) in all four events AND be the first human to run sub 9.50/19.00/43.00.
The Greatest Ever – No Contest!