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James seems to have very little ego if none at all, once he keeps it that way I believe he will break Johnsons 300m WR and possibly go sub 43. Of coarse this might take a couple of years but as he just turned 19 time is most definately on his side. I wish him the best.
I have family from Grenada so I’m loving this.
I’m cautious about him breaking Michael’s Records though, and it’s not just because 43.19 is a LONG ways away from 44.36, prodigies tending to flame out, etc.
Simple answer:
LaShawn is the only 400m guy besides Michael Johnson to have sub 20 speed in the 200. E.g. none of the other guys who can run sub 44 can also break 20s in the 200.
Meaning: I can’t count out LaShawn yet (as a record threat) since he’s got more speed than the other guys, and he’s coming off of a long layoff. Sure you can stay in shape, really good shape during a layoff, but running race speeds just does something to your body, especially in the 400.
Don’t get me wrong as a 400m guy I’m really looking for towards an awesome final at the 2012 Olympics, but I also know that the 400m record has been one of the most durable records in Track & Field.
In the past 43 years (convenient number!) the record has been broken four times http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_record_progression_400_metres_men.
Of the top ten times, all but three were run over 12 years ago, all but four were run in ’92 or prior: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/400_metres
Mind you the 400m has always been a competitive event with a ton of talent in it, just noting that only nine people have ever broken 44s, it’s just a brutal event and those improvements don’t come easy/come harder than nearly all other events.
So looking at the top ten list I wonder what’s happening there, my guess?
More athletes moving down to run 100s/200s via the benefit of training methods that enable the development of speed in more athletes (Usain Bolt is an example) who use their strength to run 100s and 200s.
I say this because when I watched Worlds this year it struck me how many athletes are considered “good closers”, it seems the opposite of say the ’91 worlds when a lot of the 100/200 guys followed the same script: get out fast and hold on, as opposed to get out, accelerate and close like a ball of fire.
I also think about when I got to college in ’94 as a 200/400 guy who was better at the 400, I start lifting seriously, working on my start, doing various speed drills and next thing you know they’re thinking of moving me down in distance as they were really able to develop my speed.
It’s possible that I’m not the only one.
Of course kids could just be punkish these days and just don’t want to run the 400, lol.
LOL, and yes kids are scared of the 400m and want to be like Usian Bolt. Very Hard to get them to understand there are certain things you must have to run the 100m. You dont get Donkey to run in the Kentucky Derby…I think that came from John Smith.
@ Markham – You do make an excellent point however LaShawns best 200m just squeaked under 20secs at a 19.98, considering it was ran in 2007 we have to be honest and say we dont know if that was a ‘clean’ 200m.
With that being said when looking at how James came back on Merritt at the WC and not knowing his actual 200m splits we can safely assume that he might have ran his 2nd 200m ~1->1.5sec slower than his first. Thats a heck of alot of speed endurance he has on his side. When he ran his 44.80 indoor this year his 1st 200m split was a 21.19 his best indoor 200m I believe is a 20.58…running your 1st 200m of a 400m within 0.70secs of your best 200m and running a sub 45 400m indoor is insane. And with his height and long longs not helping him on an indoor track speaks even more volume. If he wasnt bogged down with such a long schedule as a collegiate athlete I think he might have run close to a 44.1-44.2 at the WC. Imagine in 3 years what he might be running when he’s not being bogged down with such a hectic collegiate schedule…….?
Prodigies do seem to burn out however Bolt was and is still one and with the 100m & 200m WRs under his belt I would still place a bet on James beating that 43.19….after all he did break Bolts World Jr 400m record…….and best of all! HE HAS ZERO EGO, what a great example to future young athletes. I wish him the very best and even if he never breaks the WR I wish him a very looooong and prosperous career.
Lastly, I hope James and Bartholomew are a foundation for Grenada in building a world recognized track and field program. As a Guyanese myself, another small nation in the Carribbean, I love to see how Grenda (Bahamas, VI, etc…) is building themselves up and pray for the day when we have an athlete on the world stage (again).
Dear Mr. Lee,
What was Usain Bolt’s reaction time in the Zagreb 100?
Harsha Sankar
Virginia
Hi Fred –
I think Kirani could definitely chase the record, but when it comes to the 400m – I’m always skeptical until it happens because the record has only been broken a handful of times since the 1960s.
Improved nutrition, training methods, PEDs, be damned, we seem to be really testing the limits of how fast the human body can run that distance. Especially since not even ten people have broken 44.0 yet.
As for LaShawn, I give him the benefit of the doubt around testing positive for drugs for two reasons:
1) DHEA hasn’t really proven to offer much benefit, it has barely beaten a placebo in various tests.
2) It’s sold over the counter here in the US, it’s not even illegal. This one company is local to me (I live in Seattle) – http://www.supersup.com/mrm-dhea-25-mg-90-veggie-caps-609492410023
and GNC is nationwide: http://www.gnc.com/product/index.jsp?productId=4276175&CAWELAID=293850553
Either way, 2012 looks to be an amazing 400m final in London! Both LaShawn and Kirani have a ton of great years ahead of them, both should be in even better racing shape come next year, etc.
As far as the record goes, I think it will come down to speed.
Michael Johnson a 19.32 in ’96 when it was rare for people to break 20 let alone 19.9, can you imagine how fast he might’ve run in this day and age if he focused on the 200m had Bolt, Gay and Blake to push him?
Anyway, MJ ran 19.32 in the 200m (a race in which he pulled a quad) and his strength in the 400m is still legendary, I think that’s the combo you need to break 43.19 – I see guys who can get close, but I don’t know if anyone out there has that combo of speed and strength.
Unless Yohan Blake and Bolt start training for the 400m seriously, then that’s another story!
@Markam, yes, I agree that the next 400m guy to break 44 sec should have a PR of a sub 20 200m (even though Jeremy does not!). A lot of new 400m runners don’t understand that “rhythm” is one of the key components to success. Race execution is another!
Hello Markham,
Excellent points you made in regard to DHEA, honestly I did not know that it barely beat placebos in tests. That does make me think differently in regards to Merritts’ positive result, thanks for the schooling.
Could you imagine a 400m final IF Blake and Bolt trained hard for it for at least a year! WHOA. Could you imagine the 4×400…..at least we can dream.