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When is the next sub 44 400 meters?

You are here: Home / 400 meters / When is the next sub 44 400 meters?
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July 4, 2012 by Jimson Lee 8 Comments

Last Updated on March 10, 2013 by Jimson Lee

I’ll get to the point.

400 meter supremacy is cyclical, and it’s a very exclusive club.

Forget about the first white man to run 100 meters under 10.00.

When will see the first non-American to break 44 seconds for the 400 meters?

Will it be Kirani James? Luguelin Santos?

Heck, when will we see the next sub 44.00 sec 400m of any nationality?

Sub 10.00 second 100 meters is common place now, and to some degree, a sub 20.00 200 meters.  Top speeds are getting faster, but why aren’t we seeing better speed endurance with faster tracks and lighter spikes?   Is speed endurance that hard to develop?  And why is Jamaica so rich in 100m sprinters, but not 400 meters?  (I’ll save that editorial for another post)

Success in the 400 meters comes from 2 factors:  speed reserve and lactate tolerance (which is really a combination of speed endurance and special endurance).  Speed reserve, which by definition is the differential between your top running speed vs. actual running speed, has improved at the world elite level.   So the limiting factor must be lactate tolerance… or the undesirability of those workouts!

We haven’t seen a sub 44 second since 2008.  Will we see one in London?  If the weather is terrible, or windy, then it will be unlikely.  It may even be the slowest winning time in years.number of sub 44 400 meters

If you look at the graph above, we had 2 sub 44s in 1968, then nothing for 20 years, then 5 in 1988. 

See also  Why Do Sprinters do Tuck Jumps before Starting Blocks

This was followed by a few years of nothing (1989-1991), then another explosion of sub-44’s in 1992.  Let’s call that the Michael Johnson era.

Then another few years of quietness (2001-2003) followed by another boom from 2004-2008 thanks to Lashawn Merritt and Jeremy Wariner.

Success breeds success, and once we see a sub 44 400 meters performance, we will see a rise in 400 meter supremacy once again.

number of sub 44 400 meters sorted by time

Category icon400 meters,  Commentary,  Track & Field Tag iconSpeed Reserve

About Jimson Lee

I am a Masters Athlete and Coach currently based in London UK. My other projects include the Bud Winter Foundation, writer for the IAAF New Studies in Athletics Journal (NSA) and a member of the Track & Field Writers of America.

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Philippe says

    July 4, 2012 at 3:49 am

    I agree Jim. Key will be the 200m split in the 400m. Heck, I *think* it would be possible to crack 43 secs if Bolt, Merritt and Kirani were in the same race.!!! Bolt would probably beat them all based on his speed in the 200m and his height/stride length.

    Reply
    • Jimson Lee says

      July 4, 2012 at 1:50 pm

      I think the best 400m sprinters will be 100/200m guys like Quincy Watts and move up in distance. He ran the first 200m on fire, and was still able to sustain it..

      Reply
  2. Jim Hiserman says

    July 4, 2012 at 9:15 am

    Jimson: You are spot on with your comment on Speed Reserve and, maybe Special Endurance. I believe Wariner’s decline is due to too much Special Endurance work and not enough attention to improving or maintaining Max Velocity, which leads to a decline in Speed Reserve. Thus, all the lactate tolerance in the world won’t help you make up the gap created by faster runners going through 200 at faster and with equal lactate tolerance ability. As for the Jamaican’s, you are also correct. Take some of the 200 and 100 sprinters that are second tier and train them for 400.

    Reply
    • Bryan says

      July 4, 2012 at 10:56 pm

      Agree, Jim. Coach Hart’s training philosophy is not rooted in max velocity work, which has hurt Wariner over the years, especially as he has aged. He has had great success with his 400 runners, but that success is due to them being top-of-the-food-chain athletes, and not, in my opinion, because of how he approaches training. I respect Coach Hart for what he has done for the sport, but Wariner will never regain his form of he does not make significant changes to how he appraoches training for the event, particularly now that his physiology has changed somewhat.

      Reply
      • 46.5 400Guy says

        June 13, 2013 at 6:13 pm

        Bryan, you are dead on correct about Wariner. Now that he is older, without going into a long post, he needs to do work to regain his max velocity. The fact that Wariner can still match his workouts from years ago does not mean he can run fast races, as the training is so ‘slow’ in Hart’s program. If Wariner were to work on his pure speed, he could get back to low 44’s, probably sub 44 even at his age.

        Reply
  3. Fred says

    July 5, 2012 at 10:01 am

    If the weather permits I believe James has a chance of running a sub 44…even if he doesn’t I hope he beats Merritt. (Sorry but I have a hard time believing he was taking penile enhancement products which attributed to his positive test results) As for Santos, who knows his 44.4x totally surprised me however taking another .4+ off his time is very hard but its not impossible.

    As for Wariner I cant knock Coach Hart for him falling off, I knock Wariner for leaving Hart and going to Michael Johnson a few years ago and then back to Hart. It wasn’t broken but for some reason he decided he needed a fix, go figure.

    With Jamaican I respectively disagree….Hyatt ran a 44.83 to win their Oly Trials and they had 6 athletes run sub 45.5 in the finals, lets not forget Leford Green who won the 400IM in 48.8x and has sub 45.5 flat 400m speed. If 6-7 sub 45.5/400m runners is not rich what is? Other than the US I’m not sure any other country can boast such 400m talent. They have a ways to go to get that first sub 44 guy but I think they have a possible 2:57.xx 4×400 relay.

    Reply
  4. Steve Williams says

    July 7, 2012 at 11:05 am

    The 400 is such a gureling race many sprinters won’t ouch it in competition, The speed endurance is as you say Special MJ had the combination, 200 meters is fast enough that a relaxed 21 second first 200 can be run

    Reply
  5. Jack Boylan says

    August 15, 2013 at 9:32 am

    For high school guys do you believe in Clyde harts system for 400 meter runners.
    Thanks
    Jack Boylan

    Reply

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