Last Updated on March 10, 2013 by Jimson Lee
This article was posted 5:00pm BST, 3 hours before the start of the Men’s 200m semi-finals.
I am going to make a bold prediction, and that is Yohan Blake will beat Usain Bolt at the 2012 London Olympic 200 meters on Thursday night.
Here is my reasoning (logic?).
To calculate your 200 meter potential, using “double your best 100m plus/minus 0.2 seconds” is the norm, among several other factors such as speed endurance, fitness, weather, rounds management, etc.
In Usain Bolt’s best 2 performances in ‘08 & ‘09, his execution is consistent. He runs the first 100 meters 0.30 slower than his 100m SB (i.e. called speed reserve), and he usually slows down about 0.35 sec for the second half (i.e. speed endurance)
This means Bolt can run 19.26 seconds (9.63 x 2) or a range anywhere from 19.06 to 19.46.
Doubling your 100m time may be a neat and simple equation, but it’s really twice your speed reserve (using Bolt ‘09 = 0.34 for each 100m segment) plus your second half slowdown (0.35) that predicts your 200m time. Hence, the 2 qualities in 200m training is acceleration development for max velocity, and speed endurance. (Special endurance plays a part, too, but I don’t want to confuse the issue)
(SIDENOTE: In the chart, I use ONE full second for acceleration out of the blocks, as referenced in the Valeri Borzov – Training Procedures in Sprinting article)
Yohan Blake is the Beast
But Yohan Blake is a different beast, and he likes being called that. Really.
Why? Because his 2nd half 100 meters is the best the business, and that he barely slows down. This is a rare quality, only to be seen in the likes of Michael Johnson.
Don’t forget, in Blake’s 19.26 performance, if he had the same reaction time as his 100m performance in Daegu, he would have run 19.17 and broken the WR.
The chart above shows Bolt and Blake’s best 200m times and splits, when their 100m SB were 9.58 and 9.82 respectively. That’s a 0.24 second differential between the two body types and two different race execution styles.
Fast forward to last Sunday night, the differential between Bolt and Blake at the London 2012 100 meters final was only 0.12 seconds! (9.63 vs 9.75) You can also say Yohan is 0.07 seconds faster than last year.
I think we are going to see these two men run the first 100 about 0.30-0.35 seconds slower than their best 100m, and they will be within a 1-2 meters apart at the straightaway. Then it will be a battle down the homestretch that will determine the winner.
And I’m calling Christophe Lemaitre to win a bronze, with Wallace Spearmon and Churandy Martina very close behind.
Please comment below on your thoughts!
Jimson,
Good article and I agree just from Blake’s 19.26 with a slow reaction time. My wife called the placing of the final of the 100m just as you did, though minus the final time component. I had Blake, Bolt, Gay, with the winner running no more than 9.75, so at least that number showed up, lol.
Jimson, isn’t the differential between Blake and Bolt 0.12, not 0.08?
@Micheal, man, you are correct. Too much partying here at the Olympics and I need better reading glasses.. I’ll correct it right now. Thanks for the heads up
No worries Jimson ;-) Did the re-calculation have a material effect on your prediction?
Just the observations of a layman here, but it seemed to me as if there is a distinct difference between the US and Jamaican sprint “styles” if you like, across both the men and the women. Blake, Bolt (maybe not Weir and Powell so much), Fraser-Price, Campbell-Brown, have a distinctly more forward lean than the more upright Americans: notably Gay, Gatlin, Bailey, Jeter. Do you think this is just co-incidence, or the result of deliberate coaching? Or maybe my untrained eye deceives me? ;-)
Secondly, Bolt and Blake have definitely gained muscle mass. Not necessarily beneficial in my view. I doubt Bolt still weighs the 94kg stated on Wikipedia! And Blake’s biceps are bigger than his calves. Not sure that bulk actually helps, in spite of their results…
I don think that Bolt is +92 kgs in London, his profile in OG was 92 kgs
He was overweight before Daegu in 2011 but now he is good, a little heavier that in Berlin.
Blake is overweight sure, probably no less 82-83 kgs for 1.80m.
If Bolt is +94 kgs for you, then R. Bailey that his weight in his profile OG was 98 kgs i dont know how it will be for you?105 kgs perhaps?hehe
Because he looks a lot of heavier that Bolt and he is almost so tall like him, 6.4 Bailey 6.5 Bolt
Frank, I suppose we’ll never know for sure exactly how much they weigh. I don’t think they get weighed like boxers for the OG. But visibly they appear to be carrying more muscle mass (albeit lean). My point is more that there is a diminishing return on muscle mass, especially in the longer sprint. Watch Arnold Schwarzennegger run, for example ;-)
I’m 6’1″ and weigh 84 kg, and not nearly as muscular as Bolt. If I were 4 inches taller, even with the same degree of muscularity, I would easily weigh 94kg. It’s not a lot for someone with that size of frame. I just don’t think the added muscle will necessarily make them faster…it’s not only the added weight to carry, but the restriction of movement.
I am still waiting the splits of the final of 100m but Aguado, a spanish biomechanich, posted it in El Pais yesterday. Bolt make splits of 2,76 (plus reaction time is 2,93) 1,76 1,66 1,61 y 1,67 about 20 meter splits.
I expect we can see all the IAAF splits soon not only for Bolt and if it could be in the semifinals for all the contenders too like Berlin.
In the 200 meter I think Blake can tke an opportunity to beat Bolt. In the 100 meter for him it’s only possible if Bolt it’s not at 100% but in the 200 meter he is quite a difficult contender because his speed-endurance combination. It’s really the 19,26 is a strange race and we hadnt’ see the limits of Blake yet. The minimum I expect is two marks below the 19,4 barrier.
http://deportes.elpais.com/deportes/2012/08/06/juegos_olimpicos/1344284896_730368.html
@Radunga, the winds were terrible yesterday.. swirling… but tonight looks good! It’s blue skies right now @10:30am
Ok. Your article is great. I am posting this after watching the semi-finals so I am assuming you have seen it too. Are you still sticking to your prediction? Blake, Bolt, Lemaitre? Because I think you should rethink it… Here’s my prediction. Bolt, Blake, Weir.
@Dwight, I stand by my prediction, but 3rd place may need adjusting! Blake WILL beat Bolt.
Hmmmm interesting article. In the 100 Bolt won going away and he would continue to go away to around 150. Blake won’t have time to pull it back. IMHO too much importance is being placed on his 19.26, which I consider anomalous. Anyhow it’s gonna be mighty interesting ……. Bolt 19.25, Blake 19.45. Bring it on! ;-)
I keep going back and forth as to who will win, but for reasons you don’t mention:
For Blake: After winning the 100, Usain was up till at least 3:00AM partying with three women on the Swedish handball team. If Yohan weren’t in the race I’d say that Usain can get away with that kind of behaviour and still win. But Blake is in Bolt’s class, and doesn’t seem intimidated by Bolt, the Olympics. or the spotlight.
For Bolt: He shines when the lights are brightest.
So for those reasons I’ll say… that I’m not putting money on the race.
Finally a reasonable guy… I’m wondering why “forecasters” who gave Blake winner after Jamaican Trial – actually if they would gave Bolt as looser on 100m, they would not be very wrong… So why you guys are still making “forecasts”… Well I know why and I love debates. :)
This is my final statement… Bolt can be beaten only by himself… No Blake, no american prodigy nobody can beat Bolt… at least in this moment. When Jimson published his first article analyzing the two “duelists” I’ve put only one comment and link – “does splits and analyses take in consideration Bolt’s joy and taste for good things in a man’s life” :)). I obviously was right…In the same comment I’s was talking about betting industry.
If Bolt “has” to loose this race than he will loose it for another reason, than Blake’s speed – definitely not because he will be not fast enough for his younger contender… As well as I’m sure that Bolt can be anytime the moment’s best in the world at 400m, 400 hurdles, long jump, and with 4 years preparation probably the all time best “decathlonian”.
So in a conspiratorial scenario I’d rather say Bolt disqualified or letting Blake winning on 200m…This might double the Jamaican business… I don’t know who will win…BUT I’m sure that LeMaitre will finish with a medal on the at his neck… I’m 100 times surer about that, even ready put money on this prediction than about who will win it.
In 10 $ bet, I’d but 7$ on bronze for Lemaitre and 3$ on silver for the same guy.
Weir for 3rd! We may be surprised!
@Charles, A Jamaican sweep is possible!
never!
I’m with you on that one :)
I dont think that Blake can defeat to Bolt in 200.
All the calculations are around rare race 19.26????????
Bolt made 19.19 and 19.30 with 4 rounds 100 and 3 rounds 200 in few days.
To try compare it with only race with perfect conditions and a Blake full of energy i see it stupid….
19.23 What do I win if i am correct ? :p
that is not possible i mean bolt is d man
although bolt is faster but blake has a beta home straight
bolt will hang on nd belif in his strides
Love the discussion and analysis. I think this method of calculating 200m potential based on the 100m is perfect. Some athletes have strengths in endurance, can run under double their 100m times, like Spearmon tends to. I ultimately don’t think Yohan will beat bolt, as discussed above, that 19.26 is an outlier performance. Walter dix in the race ran 19.53 shutting it down in the last few meters because he was clearly frustrated by not having beat Blake. This was 2 weeks after worlds where he ran a 19.70s. This was a fast race for 200m, maybe ideal conditions (wind on curve and straight away). Blake’s 2nd best ever 200m is 19.78, Bolt has run many sub 19.7s, so in terms of actualization and stability, Bolt has the 200m advantage.
At trials yohan runs a 9.75, bolt 9.87, yet bolt loses 200 by 0.03s. The ideal endurance variables we speak of clearly don’t transfer in these races. I also think the idea of speed reserve on the curve is difficult to measure, because clearly you cannot run 100% on a curve, so there is some decrease, even though the athlete may be running 100% effort. Bolt’s 9.63 performance is similar to his 9.58 one I believe in terms of splits, except his time to 30m was probably the difference maker. So considering Bolt’s top end speed is probably as good as his 9.58, 19.19 days, he will be extremely tough to beat. Yohan can dip bellow double his 100m in ideal conditions for him (19.5 -0.1 = 19.4), Bolt not quite as strong but tends to be double his 100m (9.63 = 19.26). Thats how I see things going down. Bolt unbeatable in the 200m at his current speeds.
Jimson, same as you; Blake, Bolt, Lemaitre. I called the 100m bang on even all three of the times within 0.03. Blake; 19.22, Bolt 19.28, Lemaitre 19.77 IF no wind. It is is supposed to be sun this evening, but London weather is usually crap!!!
Jimson; you are a lucky man getting tickets. I have been trying for months on swimming, athletics and cycling and zip!!! AND I live and work here!!!!! plus paying for LONDON 2012 will no doubt mean no Police overtrime for the next 5 years or so. Roll on Rio!
Jimson…
This ties in nicely with my email from earlier this week, doesn’t it :P Given your calculations above showing less deceleration on the part of the Beast, the original question “When will Bolt FINALLY decide to take a shot at the 400m?” should probably be changed to “Shouldn’t Blake take a shot at the 400m?”
@Jimson:
Do you know what the London bookies are offering?
Bolt in the 19.20’s – 19.25 to be exact.
Blake won’t beat him imo, primarily because that 19.26 seems more like the odd one out rather than his level.
Also, at the trials a month ago, it was Blake who outran Bolt after they had equal first halfs of the race (both in 100 and 200). Here, Bolt was the fastest (by far) in the second half. Note however, that Bolt was gaining on Blake at the end of the 200 m.
My prediction:
1. Bolt 19.24
2. Blake – between 19.35 and 19.50 – going with 19.42
3. ? Lemaitre, Weir or Spearman – around 19.75-19.83.
well – 19.24 is my guess, mistype at the start
Absolutely love this healthy debate…I have Bolt and Blake in that order. I do not know who will get 3rd but it will be a fierce battle between Lemaitre, Martina and Spearman – I believe these 3 will be seperated by less than .25….Weir is nice and has a PR that says he should be in the mix however I think the rounds will play a part in his 200m final and he will unfortunately get 6th.
On a side note the 4×400 looks captivating…Bahamas might get the gold……
Oh yea…I predict Bolt and Blake will go sub 19.20, in the finest 200m race ever….They’re both in the shape of their lives and that track seems to fast enough to allow it
hehehe, Bolt won with 19.32 jogging last 10 metres, perhaps his “real” time would be around 19.26(yes, twice exactly to his 100m in London)
Blake very well, really the time that he can to get, 19.4-19.5.
His 19.26 was unreal, one race, ideal conditions and full of energy.
The times in big finals like OG and WC are the most important with BIG DIFFERENCE
This was a very interesting article but master beats student. Bot shut down with 40 meters left and went 19.32. He could have easily went sub 19 today.
@Deneko,
I think we saw a different race then. Easily sub-19? Not a chance. It was only the last 5-10 meters, he went down a bit in terms of relaxing. And if you look at his 100 meters in Beijing, he lost approx. 7 miliseconds on his celebration there, which was far bigger (and thus slower) than the one yesterday. Below 19.30 he could have gone. But much more – no. Also, his comments indicate that he was spend.
@Jimson and the Non believers
Wier had the fastest prelim. Besides blake and bolt he also had the best looking semi even tho he came in second, He was looking at martina run hard to catch and beat him. I blame youthful ignorance for letting martina beat him. Weir also trains with the two fastest humans ever on the planet earth! I mean what other clues do you need! All the pieces were in place for him to do what he needed to do. I knew lemaitre didnt have a chance in hell from the way he was struggling in the rounds. THe same goes for wally. I new after the semi martina couldnt beat wier. So who do you have left…..Jamaica sweep.
Why does Bolt have to play the clown? He was only .13 from his world record. If he had run through the finish…
I guess Bolt doesn’t owe anybody anything. But I’d respect him more if he gave an honest effort.
Bolt was jogging last 10m, but his improvement would not so big like somebody thinks.
Around 19.25-19.26 would “real time” running until end.
Of course last 10m he was a little tired and like he felt a little pain in his back and he knew that he would get “only” 19.2 he prefers jogging last 10m, he is a showman hehe.
but WR is impossible with his permonace yesterday, i know it and he knows it.
Bolt winning both the 100m and 200m easily proves that human performances cannot be fully explained by Science. They are some human characteristics such desire, heart and experience that your calculation failed to take note of, hence incorrect prediction.
At about 90% fitness Bolt only competition his still himself, can you imagine what a fit Bolt would have done?
As it is now, your risk continued embarrassment to bet against Bolt, so hold your theories until post 2016.
Of course Bolt was in London at 90-95%.
At 100% he would break his WRs.
The problem of Jimson is that all his calculations were around unreal 19.26 of Blake.Same 19.53 of Dix.
Dix is real 19.7 runner and Blake 19.4-19.5
Of course Blake with ideal conditions and full of energy could to get 19.2-19.3 with luck sometime in the future, but with rounds 100 and 200 in few days IMPOSSIBLE
Seems like a lot of experts here! I have one question, and I hope you forgive that I take some space with it.
I haven’t run 100 meters for 10 years, since highschool, but last year I ran a race with flying start. My time was 10,20. What would you predict with a normal start?
@Ralph. Add 1 sec for accel out of blocks, so that makes a potential of 11.20. For 100m, from open to M40, you should add 1 second. Then you add about 0.5 sec every 5 years. I wrote a length piece on attrition somewhere on this Blog.
@ Frank – Not sure why it would be impossible for Blake to run a sub 19.3 with rounds…he does train with the best sprinter on the planet, was an outstanding 400m runner in HS (split 45’s a couple years ago at Penn Relays so he has the speed endurance) is younger and is just as hungry. (Did you see what he did to Tyson Gay on the 4×100…..ate him alive, lol) Honestly, prior to last years World Champs would you be comfortable saying that Blake would be able to run a 19.44 200m & 9.75 100m this year? How about Warren Weir, would you have been comfortable saying at the beginning of this season that he would run a sub 19.9 200m? In the world of sprinting, Bolt IS the man, end of story however when both Bolt and Blake have retired, its not impossible to assume that Blake might have the better times.
Blake better times that Bolt?hehe i doubt it so much.
His 9.58 for Blake is impossible, he never will run sub 6.3 at 60m and sub 3.3 last 40m.
His 200m WR 19.19 is not impossible for Blake to 1 race, with ideal conditions like in Brussels, but in a big championship with rounds 100 and 200 in few days, IMPOSSIBLE.
He trains with Bolt, but he is NOT Bolt and never will be like him
He is 5.11, Bolt 6.5. Bolt has big stride and good frequency, Blake normal stride and big frequency.
I only hope that Bolt can break his WRs the next year, because if he gets 9.5 low or sub 9.5 and sub19 or 19 low, i think that his WRs will be long long long time.
Regards
In terms of next years World Champs I too hope that he can lower his 100m & 200m WR, without the rounds I feel very confident that he will however with that being said I think its possible that Blake also can improve on his times next year. I can only assume that training with Bolt builds confidence – Warren Weirs best last year was a 20.43 and he just ran a 19.8x….With Blake on Bolts heels I can only think its possible that Blake has the capacity to better Bolts times when its all said and done at the end of their career. Will it happen, maybe not but I do believe he’s the only one right now that can.
Fred in 200 is possible, in 100 NO.
It is almost impossible for “short runner” around 5.11 to run in less 9.7
Only Gay got with hurricane 2.0 wind and with incredible shape.
In 200 Blake showed that in only 1 race yes, he could to get WR if Bolt does not get better time before.
In rounds i doubt so much that Blake can to get it
Regards
Well I respectively hope that you are wrong only because it will make for a more exciting 100m next year at Worlds. Time will tell and either way for right now I think only Bolt can defeat himself but I do wish for a faster and even closer 100m which would be great for track and field as a whole.
Take care
Fred in 200 i see it possible, but in 100 no.
If Bolt is running in 9.5-9.6 nobody will can to be near of him.
In 200 he needs to be in good shape, really Bolt amazed me because was only 90-95% got 19.32 joggind 10 metres, perhaps 19.26 running until the end.
I think that the track and field would wondeful if Bolt wins the next year in 9.5 or 19.1.
In my opinion the track and fiel will lose a lot of fans if Blake wins with 9.7 and 19.4 and Bolt with weak times by example due to injuries.
I hope that Bolt gets incredible WRs the next year and that he is totally healthy.
It doesn’t matter how we can all talk about milliseconds in a race Usain Bolt is the king he makes everybody around him scared and when they line up together they all know who’s gonna win, mentally demolish everybody at the blocks before they even run
@ Frank…..in less than 2 weeks the near “impossible” has occurred with Blake running a PR 9.69 in a -0.1 wind. I’m going out on a limb however he appears to be the only athlete since the Olympics to have improved on their performance since and with a PR, wow! I think there should be no doubt that Blake will continue to improve in his career and has the possibility of improving to a low 9.6 by next years World Champs which will drive Bolt even faster…..The 200m next year is going to be something else!
Fred i never told that Blake can not make 9.6 , i told that for me is impossible 9.5 for him, although yes, with good wind 9.6 low is possible, and if he gets it Bolt with pression could to get 9.5 low or sub 9.5 with big wind.
I see that Blake is a lot of better to 1 race that in rounds.
19.26 with bad reacion time next year, 19.44 in OG, 9.82 basic time in OG(9.75 +1.5) and now 9.70 basic time(9.69 -0.1 +600 metres altitude)
Fred,
totally right. last year blake with a 9.75 and finishing the season in september with his 19.26. He jjust ran 9.69, I reckon with the right conditions and his regular improvements, who knows…..we may not have to wait for 2013 to see his 200m improve!!!
With Weir running sub 19.9 also, somebody PLEASE get me their training programme in depth. Coach MILLS, write and we will buy it !!!!!!!
Doug,
I believe Blake and Bolt are racing today (not against each other) w/ Blake in the 100m & Bolt in the 200m so tomorrow I will be eager to see how both perform. I hope he runs another 200m before the close of the season but if he doesn’t I understand.
I could only imagine what their training program is like – I wish I could view it for an entire offseason, preseason + season with notations for the times that they ran including detail on their performance in the weight room. NOT very likely at all I’ll ever see that but hey I can dream right? lol