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I’ve always said for a 200m meter prediction, take your season best 100 meter time, doubled, and add or minus 0.2 seconds.
You have to go back to the article LetsRun.com asks How is Bolt’s 200m WR almost exactly twice his 100m WR? where I go in detail explaining this extrapolation.
Diamond League 2011: Bislett Games, Oslo
Given that Usain Bolt’s recent 100 meter times was 9.91 this year, “double” would give 19.82 which meant anywhere between 19.62 and 20.02 depending on his fitness and speed endurance training. (wind and rain conditions will vary the formula)
His 19.86 puts him where I expected. But it’s still early June. Daegu in August is still far, far away.
Here is the video on YouTube.
UPDATE: Sorry, the video is no longer on YouTube.