Michael Johnson Deep Dive

This article was guest posted by Ian Graham, originally posted on Facebook.

We co-wrote a previous article titled Will Richard Kilty Break 10 Seconds?

I’ve discussed 400m differentials in several past articles over the years:

On Michael Johnson’s Progression and Potential

By Ian Graham

I just had a look at MJs 200m and 400m season bests down through the years and looks at 400m SB – 200m SB x 2 and what that differential was. Michael Johnson 200m and 400m Times From 1990 – 2000:

1990 = 19.85 and 44.21 (44.21 – 39.70 (19.85 x 2) = 4.50)
1991 = 19.88 and 44.17 (44.17 – 39.76 (19.88 x 2) = 4.41)
1992 = 19.79 and 43.98 (43.98 – 39.58 (19.79 x 2) = 4.40)
1993 = 20.06 and 43.65 (43.65 – 40.12 (20.06 x 2) = 3.53)
1994 = 19.94 and 43.90 (43.90 – 39.88 (19.94 x 2) = 4.02)
1995 = 19.79 and 43.39 (43.39 – 39.58 (19.79 x 2) = 3.81)
1996 = 19.32 and 43.44 (43.44 – 38.64 (19.32 x 2) = 4.79)
1997 = 20.05 and 43.75 (43.75 – 40.10 (20.05 x 2) = 3.65)
1998 = 20.31 and 43.68 (43.68 – 40.62 (20.31 x 2) = 3.06)
1999 = 19.93 and 43.18 (43.18 – 39.86 (19.93 x 2) = 3.32)
2000 = 19.71 and 43.68 (43.68 – 39.42 (19.71 x 2) = 4.26)

NOTE: 1996 was when he had the biggest differential when multiplying his 200m season best (19.32 in 1996) x 2 and then subtracting that time from his 400m best time for that same year (43.44 in 1996).

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His 1996 differential was 4.79 seconds.

From 1993 onwards we can see his time differential dropping or improving, with 1996 being the biggest. The average time differential across all eleven seasons comes out at 3.98 seconds.

In 1996 Michael ran 43.44 at the Olympics in Atlanta as part of his 200m + 400m double. As you said, he would’ve went faster in Zurich post

1996 Olympics had it not of been for a hamstring injury that ruled him out of that meet.

3.98 seconds was his average differential across the 11 years listed up above (1990 – 2000).

If we multiply his 1996 200m SB/WR of 19.32 x 2 and add on 3.98 seconds, we get = 42.62 seconds.

Then 3.85 was his average differential from 1994 – 2000 (over a 7 year period).

Even if we applied his differential time (4.26 seconds) from 2000, we would still get a sub 43.00 second clocking with 42.90 seconds.

A 4.35 differential in 1996 would have given MJ a clocking of 42.99 seconds.

Interesting to run the numbers on these things down through the years to see what patterns exist and where improvements occurred.

Part 2

Michael Johnson was always destined to run 43.18 seconds! Back in 1994 he had SBs of:

200m = 19.94
300m = 31.56
400m = 43.90

If you take 31.56 and subtract 19.94 from it, you get 11.62 seconds. Add 11.62 seconds back onto 31.56 seconds and…

You get 43.18 seconds

Subtract 43.18 from 43.90 and you get 0.72 seconds.

Now let’s look at his all time bests and the differential when we run the same calculations…

200m = 19.32
300m = 30.85
400m = 43.18
30.85 – 19.32 = 11.53
11.53 + 30.85 = 42.38
43.18 – 42.38 = 0.80 Seconds

So back in 1994 when you run the calculation and look at the end number you get 0.72 seconds for MJ. Then when you use his all time best times, you end up with 0.80 seconds.

He maintained that balance throughout his career, but his speed and speed reserve is what got better with maturity.

I also think MJs last 100m in Seville for his 43.18 clocking was 11.52 seconds. 11.53 seconds is the number you get up above when you subtract his 200m PB from his 300m PB.

Some coaches will run that calculation (300m PB – 200m PB) to guesstimate the approximate time it should take their athlete to run home over that last 100m.